Adventure – MotoInsanity

Everyone loves a deal and what better way to get one than buying a motorcycle on sale in the winter. Or at least that is the hunch most people have. As a general rule, motorcycle sales fall in the last quarter of the year indicating cheaper deals late in the year and the first few months of the next. Global trends and demand also play a major role in motorcycle sales. The Covid pandemic has increased global demand and chip shortages have shortened supply. Thus reducing the likelihood of seeing any meaningful motorcycle price reductions. While some of us had sticker shock while looking at bikes through the pandemic, others have been producing inaccurate information about pricing trends regarding motorcycling pricing. I hope to give you accurate information backed by data and maybe a shopping strategy towards the end of this article to help you find a deal. When Do Motorcycle Prices Go Down? Following simple economic concepts, we’ll see prices for motorcycles do fluctuate. As a general rule, motorcycle prices will go when the supply for motorcycles rises and outpaces the growing demand from riders. The prices of motorcycles are cyclical. They follow not only the riding season but also the larger economic cycle as well. This makes sense when you stop and think about it. You also have experience with this if you have purchased a few cars. Start there and think about when you purchased those cars. What time of year was it? How many cars were on the lots you visited? Were you looking at a specific model? Did you have to expand your search because of its lack of availability? Your answers to these questions apply to motorcycles as well. It is different because the number of motorcycle riders is much smaller than the car market. The difference here means the price sensitivity, also called elasticity, to motorcycles will differ from that of cars. A small drop in motorcycle demand could bring about a big drop in prices or it could bring about a huge reduction in future price increases. Waiting Motorcycle Prices To Drop For example, I think back to the early 2000s when American cruisers were all the rage and the price of a Harley was outrageous. Then as boomers started aging, the price increases started declining and then prices started leveling off. I know this from personal experience, as my search for a Harley I could afford lasted over seven years. After going through so many riding seasons and looking at dozens of bikes, these patterns developed with personal frustration, hope, and then victory. Gauging Motorcycle Demand As you are looking for your bike, it behooves you to visit dealerships and pay attention whenever people list bikes. As of the writing of this post, many people list motorcycles on Facebook Market Place, Craigslist, and other online places. Pay attention to the number of bikes listed, and what time of year it is. As you’ll see, this affects when the price of motorcycles drops. Worse Time To Buy A Motorcycle As mentioned earlier, almost everyone enjoys getting a deal. Implicitly, this means there is a bad time to buy a motorcycle. The worse time to buy a motorcycle is right before and during peak demand, starting in early spring and last into the late summer. Sometimes outside factors such as the Covid pandemic will affect sales and demand. If the urge to buy a motorcycle overrides the desire to get a good deal, then there is not a bad time to buy a motorcade. Peak Demand For Buying A Motorcycle Let's take a look at some data to establish clear demand patterns. Let's begin with Honda in the UK, it will start showing the patterns I’ve discussed so far. You can see in the new few months of 2020 and the beginning of 2021, motorcycle sales fell. This is during the off-season. However, after looking at the April sales, one might currently make the point, demand dropped off. While this is true, we cannot forget the effect Covid had at the beginning on the global economy. Looking further back at the beginning of 2019, we see lower sales as one would expect in January and February. Look at want we saw in July 2020, September 2020, after may of 2021. There was HUGE demand. Again this was affected by Covid. This data is a bit harder to examine since the sales are grouped by quarters and not months. We can still make a few reasonable observations. The second and third calendar quarters are the peak season for Harley. This is similar to the pattern we saw with Honda in the UK.The fourth quarter and first quarter tend to lag and include the slower off-peak season for motorcycling.Because the first quarter includes the month of March when motorcycle sales tend to increase, Q1 sales are generally higher than the Q4. Let's look at one last set of data before this post moves on to the next topic. Like Harley, KTM tends to have a cult following. People either love the brand or hate it. The loyalists will help solidify any trends we've seen with the two previous manufactures. With the KTM data, the data overall is the most consistent across the months. However, there is a decline in the winter months. Look at January, Feb, and March in particular. We see the bottoms reached in January or February and a strong rebound taking place in March. When do New Motorcycle models come out Are Motorcycles In Short Supply? I mentioned a few times in this post the effect that Covid had on motorcycle sales with increase prices and what feels like a short supply. Are motorcycles really in short supply? Right now as of the summer of 2021, motorcycles are in short supply. Covid has increased the demand and supply chain disruptions have limited the number of motorcycles that can be manufactured. The chips that most motorcycles require today are the main cause for the supply disruption causing a shortage in used motorcycles as well. If you have been looking at buying a car, you are experiencing the same thing. To see the effect of shortages right now, I googled “motorcycle shortage 2021” and came across numerous forums and boards with rants about the lack of new and used bikes. What can you do about the shortage? Not much, unless you’re willing to pay a lot for a motorcycle. Most of us do not have pockets that deep. Here are my top 3 suggestions for dealing with the motorcycle shortage: Be happy that you have one to ride right now (if you have one.) I know many new riders who are ready to learn but have do not bike to ride.Rent a motorcycle. Pick a place to ride and see about making it a trip. This is a good way to learn about the new bike you have been dreaming about but are not quite sure you want to commit to.Learn to customize your bike and change the points that drive you crazy about it. This not only lets you put your touch on the bike, but you improve your mechanical skills and learn more about how your bike works. When Will Motorcycle Prices Go Down This is a million-dollar question. No one knows the answer. At the time of this writing, the fourth wave of Covid is running through many areas across the globe. As long as the current state remains, companies will likely experience a shortfall in labor. The supply chain will continue to be disrupted. The big unknown with the current state will be demand. Will people still want motorcycles at the same level as today? I can see a scenario where travel will become difficult for the adventure rider if countries start shutting down again. This could hurt sales of the most popular and fastest-growing segment of motorcycles, adventure riding. On the flip side, if there is still a lack of new bikes because of the chip shortage, there still might be enough demand to keep prices high. Some of the motorcycle companies seem to be picking up on this. Take Harley with their new marketplace for used Harleys. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/h-d1-marketplace-becomes-largest-152500078.html Will go well for Harley and what does it mean for the price of Harley motorcycles? I am guess it might reduce the effect of buying at lower prices in the winter and early spring months While this is a good thing for dealers and manufactures, it does not help us as consumers. How To Get The Best Priced Motorcycle While every deal is different, here are 8 ways to help you get the best price on a motorcycle. Know if it is a buyers or seller's market. We have been discussing the fact it is a seller's market right now because of the lack of supply of new motorcycles and there is an increased demand for them. Knowing you are not in the stronger position upfront should change the way you go into the price negotiations Know how the salesmen get paid. The traditional line of thinking follows that of buying a car. After you find a car, you sit down at the table and play the negotiating game over price and the salesman receives a commission. While this still holds true at many dealerships, times are changing. Many places are now starting to pay based on the volume of units sold. There is less negating with the salesman and more of an indirect haggling with the finance manager through the salesman. Neither is ideal, but part of the process. Know the marketplace value of the bike you want. Nothing puts the dealer or salesman in a stronger position than an uninformed buyer. Know the values of bikes being sold at the time you are looking. Spend a little time on Facebook Marketplace or Craigslist. Heck, window shop online at other dealerships. Don’t say you don’t have the time. Chances are you look at your phone enough in the bathroom. Not only will this window shopping allow you to see how much your desired model is going for, but you’ll get ideas of how you want to customize it later. Know the dealer makes more off used bikes. Knowing this fact set me back upon the first time hearing it. After thinking about how the markets work, it makes sense dealers make more off the used bikes. Remember what I said earlier about how the salesmen get paid. On a per-unit basis, it helps improve the dealership's margins where there is less room to negotiate on a new bike. The dealer would prefer to sell used bikes the but the manufacture wants new ones sold. This creates an interesting opportunity for you as the buyer. The dealer will be willing to negotiate more on the used bike because they have higher margins and generally speaking, the price is already a bit lower. Be willing to walk if you’re not getting the deal you want. You have to be careful with this one and it must be used in coordination with the other items on this list. Specifically, you must be willing to work on a fair deal. If you walk in a dealership, know what the bike is worth, what you are willing to pay, and if demand or supply is driving the market, there is not much to negotiate. Present a fair deal and cut the haggling. I’ve done this with a few cars and the last street bike I purchased. In one case I was walking out the door as the salesman came running out to give me the terms I originally put on the table. Find a few bikes you like and have the dealer price match. If you have options to choose from, you’re putting yourself in a stronger position to get a better deal. Ask the dealer if they can work any more on the price as some of the other models you are looking at seem to provide a better value. You can also show them the ads and ask them how their bike is different enough to ask for a higher price. Just be silent while they try to answer. Use out-the-door pricing. Your end game is to take as much value out the door as you can. Ideally, this will be a bare bone out-the-price for the bike itself. Do not get caught up in all the other pricing add ons and lingo. It is an illusion. You don’t care if the additional dollar comes from a destination charge or service fee. Total cost is what you want to know and you want it low. This comes back to know what I stated before, know what you are willing to pay. Negotiate other parts of your deal. Look at adding other items to the deal to sweeten the pot if you think it will help. The key here is you add the item. Do NOT let the dealer add them to the deal. You might negotiate service to your bike, oil changes, new tires, chrome parts, or add-ons. The list is endless, but you get the point. Buying Your Motorcycle In The Winter You have the opportunity to use the season pricing patterns along with your newly found buying tips to get your next bike. Start looking at patterns for the seasonal pricing as the weather starts cooling off. It may even behoove you to start "testing" your negotiating tactics by visiting a few dealerships and have a conversation about a bike here or there. Before anyone gets worked up, make it clear to any salesperson that you are there only to look. This should not prevent you from asking the key questions about a bike, or its pricing. Now you know the price of motorcycles drops in the winter and what months to get your best deal. You also have knowledge on how to negotiate that deal. Enjoy and get out there for a ride.